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                    美國通貨膨脹再超預期(上)

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                    Finance & economics

                    財經板塊

                    American inflation: On the up and up

                    美國通貨膨脹:一升再升

                    Inflation in America tops forecasts yet again, adding to recession risks

                    美國通貨膨脹再次超過預期,導致經濟衰退風險上升

                    At this point upside surprises in inflation occur with such frequency that surprise is probably the wrong word for them.

                    此時此刻,通脹的上行驚喜出現的頻率如此之高,以至于用“驚喜”來形容它們可能不太合適。

                    So it was with America’s consumer price index (CPI) for June, published on July 13th.

                    7月13日公布的美國6月份消費者價格指數(CPI)也是如此。

                    It soared 9.1% compared with a year earlier, marking yet another four-decade high and beating forecasts for an 8.8% increase.

                    該指數較去年同期飆升了9.1%,再創40年來新高,超過了8.8%的增長預期。

                    Still, investors seemed to be caught unawares, with stocks falling sharply after the data, adding to this year’s big losses.

                    盡管如此,投資者似乎措手不及,數據公布后,股市大幅下挫,加劇了今年的巨大損失。

                    The pessimism in financial markets is easily understood: persistently high inflation is forcing the Federal Reserve to press on with aggressive monetary tightening, even at the potential cost of a recession.

                    金融市場的悲觀情緒不難理解:居高不下的通脹正迫使美聯儲繼續實施激進的貨幣緊縮政策,甚至不惜付出經濟衰退的潛在代價。

                    All the more important, therefore, to understand how persistent inflation will be.

                    因此,更重要的是要了解通脹將會持續到什么程度。

                    In this respect the most concerning part of the latest data was not the shocking headline figure, about half of which could be attributed to oil and gas prices, which surged early in June but have since ebbed.

                    就這一點來說,最新數據中最令人擔憂的部分并不是令人震驚的整體數據,其中大約一半可以歸因于石油和天然氣價格,石油和天然氣價格在6月初飆升,但此后有所回落。

                    Rather, it was the change in core prices, stripping out volatile food and energy.

                    相反,最令人擔憂的是剔除了波動較大的食品和能源價格的核心價格變化。

                    Core inflation rose 0.7% in June from May, the highest month-on-month increase in a year.

                    6月核心通脹率較5月上升0.7%,為一年來最高環比增幅。

                    And it was not a blip: over the past three months core inflation has been running at an annualised rate of nearly 8%, an indication of the breadth of price pressures.

                    這并不是短暫現象:在過去的三個月里,核心通脹的年率一直接近8%,這表明了價格壓力的廣度。

                    Just about everything—from cars to clothing and furniture to rents—is getting more expensive.

                    幾乎所有的東西--從汽車到衣服、家具到房租--都變得越來越貴。

                    That reinforces investors’ belief that the Fed will stay on its hawkish path.

                    這讓投資者更加相信,美聯儲將繼續走鷹派路線。

                    A day before the inflation data, bond-market pricing implied that the Fed would raise interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point at its next rate-setting meeting in late July, the second straight increase of that size.

                    在通脹數據公布的前一天,債券市場的定價表明,美聯儲將在7月下旬的下一次利率制定會議上加息75個基點,這是美聯儲連續第二次進行這樣幅度的加息。

                    Following the data, bond pricing put the chances at roughly 50-50 that it would instead opt for a full percentage point increase.

                    數據公布后,債券定價顯示,美聯儲選擇加息整整一個百分點的可能性約為50%。

                    Either way, it puts the Fed on track for the steepest monetary tightening in a calendar year since 1981, when Paul Volcker was at the central bank’s helm.

                    無論是哪種情況,這都將使美聯儲走上自1981年保羅·沃爾克執掌美聯儲以來最大幅度貨幣緊縮的軌道。

                    That is already weighing on economic growth.

                    這已經在拖累經濟增長。

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